Following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the subsequent rise of the opposition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the fate of Russia’s military presence in the country has become a topic of intense debate. In a recent BBC interview, Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, emphasised the longstanding strategic partnership between Russia and Syria. He hinted at a future where this relationship continues, leaving open the possibility of Russian military forces remaining in Syria.
Russia’s two military bases in Syria are pivotal in maintaining Moscow’s strategic influence in the Mediterranean and Africa. While many experts question the likelihood of cooperation between HTS and Russia, European officials have expressed hope that the new Syrian government would expel Russian forces. A senior EU representative articulated this sentiment, aligning with broader European opposition to Russia’s involvement.
Despite this, some analysts believe the outlook for Russia’s military operations in Syria may not be as bleak as it seems. Russia has demonstrated a capacity for negotiating agreements with radical groups globally, including its collaborations with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Houthis in Yemen. In a notable shift, Russian media have started referring to HTS as Syria’s “armed opposition” instead of labelling them as a “terrorist group.” Additionally, the Syrian embassy in Moscow swiftly replaced its flag with that of the opposition within hours of Damascus’s fall.
Ultimately, the continuation of Russia’s military presence in Syria hinges on HTS’s willingness to adopt a pragmatic stance, setting aside past grievances. Over the last nine years, Russian forces have targeted Syrian jihadists, making this cooperation a test of HTS’s strategic priorities over ideological resentments.
The partnership between Moscow and the new Syrian authorities could prove to be mutually beneficial. Moscow can offer the new Syrian leadership much-needed international legitimacy while helping HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) gain independence and shed its image as a Turkish proxy. HTS, in turn, stands to benefit from Russia’s assistance in countering U.S. influence in Syria. The United States continues to back Kurdish and tribal groups in northern and eastern Syria, which prevents HTS from achieving full control over the country. Moreover, Russia is well-positioned to act as an intermediary between the new Syrian government and Israel. Israel remains resolute in its goals to eliminate Syria’s remaining weapons and equipment while expanding control over the Golan Heights and the southwestern province of Quneitra.
While Europe has been quick to dismiss Russia’s role in Syria, it has overlooked the potential benefits of Moscow’s presence for the European Union. The EU’s hopes for a swift return of Syrian refugees following Assad’s ousting remain distant and uncertain. The new Syrian government faces significant challenges, including the establishment of statehood, territorial disputes with Kurdish forces, and addressing Israel’s territorial claims and Syria’s weakened defence capabilities. These challenges exacerbate an already precarious security situation, forcing Europe to not only abandon immediate plans for refugee deportations but also prepare for a potential new wave of migration.
Additionally, the release of thousands of prisoners, including terrorists and radical Islamists, poses a serious security threat not only to the Middle East but also to Europe. In this context, the Russian military presence in Syria, proven effective in combating terrorism and capable of supporting HTS on key issues, aligns with Europe’s security interests.
