US Election special opinion by Dick Roche, former Irish Minister for European Affairs and a former Minister for the Environment who, as a government Minister, ordered the recall of electronic voting machines in Ireland. The machines were subsequently scrapped, and Ireland returned to paper ballots.
Vice President Harris has been arguing that democracy “is on the ticket” in the US Presidential election. For the Democratic Party, keeping former President Trump out of the White House is synonymous with defending ‘American democracy’ – a good campaign line.
Democracy is on the ticket in another, less partisan, sense. American voters have been losing confidence in their electoral system for decades.
When voters lose confidence in elections democracy is, indeed, on the ticket.
An Electoral System Riddled with Flaws.
In September, ahead of the UN International Day of Democracy, Pew Research released a “short read” noting that “Americans are unhappier and more divided than most about the state of their democracy and particularly gloomy about its prospects for improvement.”
A New York Times /Sienna poll taken between 20 and 23 October found that less than half (49%) of those polled believed that “American democracy does a good job representing the people.” Seventy-six percent believed democracy “is currently under threat”.
American citizens have reasons to be concerned about their election system.
The US system is highly decentralized and extraordinarily complex. State and local authorities determine election policy and set election law.
Election rules differ dramatically from state to state. Within individual states, rules can substantially differ at the municipal and county levels.
Federal government involvement in elections, which is scattered across an array of agencies, bureaus, and departments, is limited.
The drama that played out in Florida in the 2000 Presidential elections demonstrates the problems that can arise in a fragmented system.
For over a month after voting day, 7th November, an astonished world looked on while election staff attempted to adjudicate on ‘hanging chads’, and interpret ‘butterfly ballot papers’, and legal teams battled in the courts. With the cut-off date for certification of Florida’s electors rapidly coming into focus the US Supreme Court called a halt to the chaos by ordering that the recounting of votes had to stop. Florida, the Court’s majority felt, lacked a uniform statewide methodology to resolve the questions that arose in the election count and there was insufficient time to create one.
The Florida result was settled in favour of George W Bush by a margin of just 537 votes in a state where over 5.8 million votes were cast.
Those who defend the US system argue decentralization allows individual jurisdictions to experiment and innovate. Critics argue it is dangerous. Cynics suggest it means that those with the power do not have to cheat to win elections – they simply change the rules.
A Deeply Flawed Electoral System.
Complex and frequently changing administrative arrangements are by no means the only problems in the US electoral system.
Issues relating to electoral boundaries, ‘dark’ money, questionable electoral rolls, questions about voter identity, the involvement of a court system that is viewed as politically partisan, and more recently the switch from in-person voting to Vote by Mail (VBM) have all ‘chipped away’ at public confidence.
Gerrymandering, the process of partisan revision of Congressional electoral boundaries is baked into US politics, shamelessly practiced by both political parties, and, does little to inspire confidence.
Money plays a huge role in US politics. A 2010 decision by the Supreme Court in the Citizens United vs FEC case opened the floodgates for special interests to pour money into US elections. There has been some talk of a constitutional amendment however the chances of any proposal receiving the requisite political support seem remote.
For years Republicans have accused Democrats of ‘stuffing’ voter lists and supporting ‘dirty electoral rolls’ plumped up with non-existent voters, with voters who have moved on or who have ‘passed away. Democrats characterise Republican efforts to ‘cleanse’ electoral rolls as ‘voter suppression’.
Voter identification is another hot-button issue. Fourteen States and Washington DC do not require voter ID. Thirty-six states require voters to show some form of ID. The left portrays the idea of voter ID as an attack on minorities, on the poor, and the elderly, another form of voter suppression. Proponents see voter ID as protecting the integrity of elections.
Lawfare is another issue. Republicans have accused the Biden administration of using lawfare to exclude Donald Trump from the election. Both parties are reported as gearing up for major battles in state and federal courts if things do not go their way on 5th November.
In the 2020 US election vote by mail became an explosive issue. Advocates of the move to VBM argued that it was the only safe way to conduct elections during the pandemic. Opponents argued that the move would open the floodgates to fraud. The rapid rollout of VBM in the 2020 election triggered Donald Trump and fed the debate about the validity of the 2020 election results. In this year’s election with both parties committing significant time and money to expanding early and absentee voting, VBM has been less of a trigger. That, however, could well change when votes are being counted.
Resisting Reforms
While the debate on the problems in the US electoral system has been around for decades reform has been slow coming.
Following the controversial 2000 Presidential election, Congress passed the Help America Vote Act (HAVA). The Act set up the US Election Assistance Commission, an agency intended “to serve as a clearinghouse for election administration information”, provided funds for states to improve electoral administration and replace outdated equipment, and created minimum standards for states to follow in relation to election administration. While billed as making “sweeping reforms” the legislation barely shifted the needle.
In 2005 a bipartisan commission jointly chaired by President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, and former Secretary of State James Baker, a Republican, produced a report “Building Confidence in US Elections”.
The report proposed a national system to connect state and local voter registration lists, a move aimed at avoiding double registration of voters, a common voter identification system, a series of proposals to improve voter access, stronger efforts to combat fraud – especially in absentee voting – and a system of auditable paper trails for all voting technology.
Like HAVA the Carter-Baker recommendations did not shift the needle. Its recommendations on voter registration and voter ID, proposals that would be regarded as common sense in most countries, were labelled as voter suppression or undermining privacy. Much of the Commission’s work was ignored.
In 2021 President Carter and James Baker in a joint letter noted “Public confidence in our elections continues to wane, and the risk to our democracy is greater than ever.” They bemoaned “losing candidates (who) accuse their opponents of cheating rather than accepting results” and wrote of “so-called electoral reforms (that) too often aim to give political advantage to one side or the other rather than to fix problems.”
Next Tuesday’s Election
In the tinder box that is US politics a close call election on November 5th with disputed results could have serious consequences.
When President Biden decided to step aside as the Democrat’s candidate the 2024 election it looked as if the stars were ‘aligning’ for VP Harris. Enthusiasm amongst Democrat voters climbed, huge funds flowed into the party’s coffers and polling for the party improved rapidly.
In addition, Donald Trump’s age advantage was ‘flipped’ and Republican talking points focused on President Biden’s acuity had to be scrapped. Most importantly, the Electoral College map changed dramatically.
On 1st September, polling showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin , Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The polling website Fivethirtyeight recorded the Vice President with leads, ranging from 0.1 to 2.9 points, well within the margin of error but a lead is a lead. Those six states carry 61 electoral college votes winning them would deliver a blowout victory for Harris.
Donald Trump was polling ahead in only one battleground state, North Carolina, and then by only 0.6 points.
By the end of September, the position changed. Kamala Harris was ahead in four states Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Donald Trump was up in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Again the leads by both candidates were well within the margin of error however the direction of travel had tilted towards Trump.
On the 30th October, Donald Trump was ahead – again by slim margins – in Pennsylvania, North Carolina Georgia and Arizona. Harris was ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Nevada was tied.
While the shifts in support in all of the battleground states remain well within the margin of error the move away from VP Harris is striking.
Not only has the Vice President lost the lead position in three key states but her poll numbers in all 7 battleground states have fallen -in most cases marginally.
The movement for Trump has been in the opposite direction again by fractions of a percentage.
A Powder Keg
The 2024 election campaign has been like no other. It has seen two attempts on the life of the Republican candidate. A serving President has withdrawn from the contest.
When Vice President Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic Party ticket the tempo of the 2024 US election has altered dramatically.
Having initially dropped behind VP Harris the trend for Trump now looks good. However, a tiny shift across the seven key battleground states could deliver either a crushing defeat or a blowout victory.
As the campaign has moved toward the finish line it has descended into name-calling. Toxicity has risen to levels that are striking even by US political standards. US politics which is excitable at the calmest of times has become a powder keg.
A clear-cut victory for the winning candidate in Tuesday’s election could prevent that powder keg from igniting.
The last thing the world needs at this moment is four more years of bitterness, rancour, and political paralysis in the US.
Between now and Tuesday perhaps we should all say a little prayer for a clear margin between the election winner and the runner-up – in the hope of defusing the powder keg.