The recent wave of abductions, arrests and the brutal killing of an opposition official in Tanzania seems to be dimming the ray of political hope that came with President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s rise to power in 2021.
There was huge relief when Samia – Tanzania’ first female president – took office, with opposition parties allowed to organise rallies and criticise the government without the fear of grave repercussions.
But concern is growing that Tanzania is sliding back to the era of her autocratic predecessor, John Magufuli.
In the span of weeks, two of the most senior opposition leaders have been arrested twice, and another opposition official, Ali Kibao, was abducted, killed and his body doused in acid by unknown assailants.
“The political situation in Tanzania is worrisome in the extreme,” said the deputy leader of the main opposition Chadema party, Tundu Lissu.
He was speaking to the BBC a week before his arrest on Monday, when his party had planned to protest against the killing of Kibao and the alleged disappearance of several other government critics. Lissu was later released on bail.
He was also released on bail last month, following his arrest on the eve of a banned opposition rally in the south-western town of Mbeya.
Chadema said about 100 of its members had been detained to prevent the rally from taking place.
“We’re beginning to see the kind of the wave of repression and state-orchestrated violence which was characteristic of the period from 2016 to 2020 [during the Magufuli administration],” Lissu told the BBC.
In 2017, Lissu sustained heavy injuries during an assassination attempt, when his vehicle was sprayed with at least 16 bullets.
He was treated abroad and stayed in exile in Belgium until his return last year to, as he put it, “write a new chapter” for the country after the president lifted a ban on rallies.
Lissu now sees the promised reforms as a façade.
“[There have been] no reforms whatsoever. No reforms of a democratic nature,” he told the BBC.
The violent incidents are politically motivated and “associated with the security forces” he alleged, adding that they were a harbinger of worse to come.
The police have denied involvement, while the ruling CCM party’s secretary-general, Emmanuel Nchimbi declined to speak to the BBC.
There is no doubt that the crackdown has sullied the image of the president.
Rights groups and western diplomats have called for an immediate end to “arbitrary detention” and have demanded “independent and transparent investigations”.
In her response, the president warned “outsiders” against meddling in Tanzania’s affairs but she also denounced the killing of Kibao, and ordered speedy investigations.
“Our country is a democracy, and every citizen has the right to live,” she said.
“It is surprising that the death of our brother Kibao has stirred up such a huge outcry of condemnation, grief, and accusations of calling the government murderers.
“This is not right. Death is death. What we Tanzanians must do is stand together and condemn these acts,” she added.
Tanzanian political analyst Thomas Kibwana said there appeared to be a lack of good faith between the main political parties, which has led to negotiations aimed at bringing about reforms stalling.
He added that while being confrontational may suit the opposition to win votes, it fuelled tensions.
Samia had indicated that she was “very open to dialogue” and, from her perspective, Chadema had “shut the doors to negotiation” and had resorted to protest action, Mr Kibwana said.
“This is up to both sides – for them to sit down and come back to the talks,” he added.
At the beginning, Samia was very much focused on her much-publicised mantra of the four Rs – reconciliation, resilience, reforms and rebuilding.
Her moves to mend fences with the opposition and initiate reforms – especially when she did not seem to be under political pressure to do so – won her praise locally and abroad.
There are still signs of the positive image she wants to retain.
One billboard in the centre of the capital, Dodoma, says: “The president of all Tanzanians – irrespective of their party, religion, ethnicity or gender. Mama [Samia] delivers”.
The billboard bears her picture sitting in a conversation with Lissu, now one of her fiercest critics.
Other billboards, including in the largest city Dar es Salaam, show her with other opposition leaders, depicting her intention to unite people across the political divide.
They appear to be campaign advertisements ahead of local government elections next month and presidential and parliamentary elections a year later.
The elections will be her first real test. She was Magufuli’s deputy, and inherited the presidency following his sudden death during the coronavirus pandemic.
Like Magufuli, she belongs to the CCM party, which has won every election it has contested since independence from Britain in 1961.
According to the second-biggest opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, Samia’s reform drive may have been stymied by the CCM’s fear that it may lose elections.
“We have heard a CCM bigwig saying that if she had maintained that pace which she came in with, she would lose the country to the opposition,” party leader Dorothy Semu told the BBC.
“So maybe she absorbed that fear that if you reform, you will eventually end giving in to the opposition,” she added.
But Semu feels the political climate is better than during the Magufuli era, even if government officials sometimes acted like “they are doing us a favour”.
“We have now a more open civic space. We can talk about politics freely. We can discuss as political parties. We can take part in political rallies. We can organise meetings,” she told the BBC.
Semu added that as elections approach, “we are hopeful, but we not assured everything is going to be OK”.
Lawyer and activist Fatma Karume told the BBC that genuine reform hinged on overhauling the country’s laws so that the president has less power.
“In Tanzania we have something called an imperial presidency,” she said.
“All we have is a head of state who is less oppressive… let’s say, not as comfortable as Magufuli in using the oppressive powers of the state.”